come non detto: permane alto rischio grandinigeno...
Da "Estoflex"
http://www.estofex.org/quote
Current thinking is that thunderstorms evolve along and ahead of the cold front across the Balkans and over north-eastern Italy. Strong deep layer vertical wind shear (more than 20 m/s in the lowest 6 km) supports well-developed multicells, capable of producing large hail and excessive rain. Additionally, locally enhanced SRH can result in supercells with very large hail the main threat, but also tornadoes and severe wind gusts are not ruled out.
Later in the period, approaching trough and jet streak from the west will likely assist initiation further west across northern Italy. Lee cyclogenesis results in strongly veering profiles and SRH around 150 J/kg. Supercells, capable of producing very large hail. Low-level vertical wind shear is expected to be relatively weak, limiting the chance of tornadoes, but every isolated supercell that forms will also pose a tornado threat.
Increasing DCVA is expected to support rapidly clustering of the storms, forming one or two MCSs, moving south-east. Excessive precipitation, severe wind gusts, and large hail are forecast to be the main threat, but tornadoes are also not ruled out given increasing low-level vertical wind shear.
Unquote
